Written by Martin Osei Tutu, Environmental Journalist with the Daily Democrat Newspaper
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There is an urgent need for collaborative efforts among journalists, scientists, meteorologists, climate researchers, policymakers, civil society organisations, and local communities to raise public awareness about the potential impacts of an intense El Niño phenomenon, sometimes described as a “Godzilla El Niño.”
El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual. A “Godzilla El Niño” describes an exceptionally strong event — longer, hotter, and more destructive than normal. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that the ongoing event could be the strongest in four decades, with sea surface temperatures expected to reach 3.8°C above average.
The warning is not theoretical. Africa has already lived through it.
THE NUMBERS TELL THE STORY
The 2015-16 El Niño — one of the three strongest since 1950 — pushed 36 million people in Africa into near-famine conditions, devastating maize fields and livestock across Southern Africa and Ethiopia.
In Mozambique alone, maize production fell by approximately 35% in 2016, drought affected 864,000 hectares of agricultural land and 459,000 farmers, while flooding affected another 194,100 people.
The most recent cycle was even worse. The 2023/24 El Niño caused Southern Africa’s worst drought in more than a century. More than half the harvest failed, agricultural damage reached an estimated US$1.93 billion, and around 61 million people were affected.
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) says that same cycle pushed more than 8 million people into food insecurity, and forecasts a greater than 50% probability of agricultural drought across large parts of Namibia, Botswana, Angola, Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Mozambique and Madagascar.
Today, the threat is building again. In Eastern and Southern Africa, 62 million people are facing worsening food insecurity due to flooding and drought, with famine risks in Sudan, South Sudan and Somalia. Water levels are already declining at nearly 80% of water points across the Sahel, particularly in Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso and Chad.
The human cost is highest for children. UNICEF estimates that more than 40 million children across eight countries in Eastern and Southern Africa will experience unusually wet or dry conditions between October and December 2026 due to El Niño.
The World Health Organization has classified the anticipated health impact as a Grade Three emergency, identifying 18 countries in Africa at high or very high risk, including DRC, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique, South Sudan, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
The economic cost is also massive. The African Development Bank estimates El Niño could reduce GDP in the most affected countries by 1-2%, equivalent to losses of US$10 billion to US$20 billion.
WHY COLLABORATION IS CRITICAL
El Niño can influence weather patterns across different parts of Africa, contributing to extreme heat, drought, flooding, food insecurity, and water shortages in vulnerable communities. The severity and location vary, making accurate scientific information, early warnings, and public preparedness essential.
In West Africa, including Ghana, FAO maps point to a broad belt of agricultural drought stretching from Senegal through Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin and Nigeria. For farmers in Kumawu, Ejura and Tarkwa, a shift in rainfall by just two weeks can mean total crop failure.
Yet Oxfam warns that only $450 million has been pledged globally for El Niño preparedness, far below the billions required, while aid and climate finance have been cut by a third in the last three years.
That is why collaboration matters. Scientists must provide localised forecasts in local languages. Journalists must translate science into preparedness, not fear. Policymakers and assemblies must act on warnings — desilting drains, protecting water sources, supporting climate-smart farming. Traditional leaders, civil society and communities must spread the message through durbars, churches, mosques, schools and community radio.
WHAT GHANAIANS SHOULD DO NOW
Awareness without action will not save lives. Every Ghanaian has a role to play, starting today.
First, listen to forecasts. Follow Ghana Meteorological Agency updates every week. Do not rely on rumours or social media panic. Accurate information is the first line of defence.
Second, for farmers: Plant early-maturing and drought-tolerant crops. Talk to your Agric Extension Officer before planting. Do not plant only one crop, because if one fails, the other may survive.
Third, for households: Store clean water safely. Keep some food stocks. Boil or filter water if your source looks dirty. Have an emergency plan for floods, especially if you live in a low-lying area in Accra, Kumasi, or the coastal towns.
Fourth, for Assemblies and communities: Desilt drains now, not during the rain. Clear waterways. Protect rivers from galamsey and waste dumping, because polluted water makes drought and flooding even more dangerous.
Finally, for everyone: Share verified information, not fear. If you hear a flood or drought warning, warn your neighbour, your church, your market, and your family.
El Niño does not announce itself with one storm. It builds slowly. If we report it early, explain it clearly, and act on it together, Africa can reduce the damage and save lives.
The call is clear: Work together now, raise awareness now, and protect our future. Early warning saves lives. Early action saves livelihoods.
